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Projecting the Cost of Magnetic Disk Storage Over the Next 10 Years

The following table shows the cost per GigaByte and the cost per TeraByte (about one thousand GigaBytes) in each year from 1992 through the year 2010. As shown in the table, one GigaByte is sufficient storage for two file cabinets of scanned documents and one TeraByte is sufficient storage for two thousand file cabinets of scanned documents. The table is generated using an assumption of a price reduction of 37.5 percent each year. (All trademarks are the property of their respective holders.)

The Basis for the Assumptions in the Table

This assumption of an annual price decrease of 37.5 percent is based on an increase in disk storage density of 60 percent per year. With this increase, for a given price, one can purchase 1.6 times as much storage capacity next year as one can purchase this year. The corresponding annual decrease in price per unit of storage is therefore 37.5 percent.

The estimated increase is disk storage density is based on IBM’s predictions for its magnetoresistive (MR) head technology. IBM invented the MR technology, and MR is currently the technological basis for advancements in the magnetic disk industry. IBM has been increasing the areal bit density of magnetic disks at a rate of 60 percent per year since 1989. IBM projects that the 60 percent rate of increase will continue for the foreseeable future. (Source: The Era of Magnetoresistive Heads, Ed Grochowski, IBM Research Division, Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA., 1994).

In a press release issued on December 29, 1997, IBM stated that the trend is continuing on track. As proof, IBM described a demonstration of a working disk configuration that could be manufactured in production quantities in the year 2001. The demonstrated density, if applied to a 3.5 inch form factor, could potentially produce a 32 GigaByte, 3.5 inch magnetic disk in 2001.

A Longer Perspective for Retention Periods

IBM introduced the 5 MegaByte RAMAC disk drive in June, 1957, at a monthly rental of $3,200.00 (in 1957 dollars). (Source: IBM’s Early Computers, by Charles J. Bashe, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1986.) In 1957 RAMAC magnetic disk storage cost 100 thousand dollars per MegaByte, or 100 million dollars per GigaByte, to purchase. (Adjusted to current dollars, and adjusted for IBM’s historic practice of renting rather than selling.). In 1998, magnetic disk storage cost 60 dollars per GigaByte. This represents a decline of over one-million-to-one (from 100 million dollars to less than 100 dollars per MegaByte) in forty-one years or about a 29.8 percent decline per year.

The advances described here are based on magnetic disk technology. The study of the history of technology has shown that over long periods of time, as technologies are exhausted, new technologies replace them, and a steady rate of advancement is maintained. Holographic and nano-machine technologies have been under development for some time and promise several more orders of magnitude improvement in price and physical size reduction, as well as increases in speed, when advances in magnetic disk technology slow.

Cost Adjustment for Advanced Hardware and Support Technology

There are many configurations of magnetic disks available. The simplest disk configuration is in the PC (Personal Computer) on one's desk. In the preceding table, this configuration is assigned an approximate relative cost of 1X. 1X is the base cost for the cost comparison of the disk configurations. The next configuration adds redundancy by storing the same data on two or more disks. This is assigned a relative approximate cost of 2X because the disk storage cost is roughly twice as much as the disk storage cost in a generic PC. The third configuration adds hardware support and fault awareness to the redundancy. This is assigned a relative approximate cost of 5X. Finally, mainframe disk configurations adds more hardware and software features to data storage, resulting in approximately a 10X cost. [Article 011v39]

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Acknowledgements

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All trademarks are the property of their respective holders.

Article 011v39

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Steve Gilheany
Archive Builders
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SteveGilheany@ArchiveBuilders.com

Bio

Steve Gilheany, BA in Computer Science, MBA, MLS Specialization in Information Science, CDIA (Certified Document Imaging System Architect), AIIM Master, and AIIM Laureate, of Information Technologies, CRM (Certified Records Manager, ARMA) has seventeen years experience in document imaging and is a Sr. Systems Engineer at Archive Builders.

Author

Steve Gilheany is a Sr. Systems Engineer at Archive Builders. He has worked in digital document management and document imaging for seventeen years.

His experience in the application of document management and document imaging in industry includes: aerospace, banking, manufacturing, natural resources, petroleum refining, transportation, energy, federal, state, and local government, civil engineering, utilities, entertainment, commercial records centers, archives, non-profit development, education, and administrative, engineering, production, legal, and medical records management. At the same time, he has worked in product management for hypertext, for windows based user interface systems, for computer displays, for engineering drawing, letter size, microform, and color scanning, and for xerographic, photographic, newspaper, engineering drawing, and color printing.

In addition, he has nine years of experience in data center operations and database and computer communications systems design, programming, testing, and software configuration management. He has an MLS Specialization in Information Science and an MBA with a concentration in Computer and Information Systems from UCLA, a California Adult Education teaching credential, and a BA in Computer Science from the University of Wisconsin at Madison. His industry certifications include: the CDIA (Certified Document Imaging System Architect) and the AIIM Master, and AIIM Laureate, of Information Technologies (from AIIM International, the Association of Information and Image Management, (http://www.AIIM.org), and the CRM (Certified Records Manager) (from the ICRM, the Institute of Certified Records Managers, an affiliate of ARMA International, the Association of Records Managers and Administrators, (http://www.ARMA.org).

Contact:

SteveGilheany@ArchiveBuilders.com
Tel: +1 (310) 937-7000
Fax: +1 (310) 937-7001

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